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Board » Flag Officers » Races » Handicapping the IMSYC 2010

Posted by 76Trombones Posts 362 Registered at 2009-08-03 18:04:56	2010-02-17 15:04:46 - Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	Post annotated by Incognito : This thread was moved from the category General Discussion. A bit of a side project for this year's race... ORC-style handicapping of the official standings: Background info and more detail on http://76trombones.wordpress.com Interesting race so far - It's fun to see the fleet open up depthwise in the first few hours instead of the single-wavefront look that we normally get. Cool also to see how quickly you can identify the different fleets as gaps open up. These differences will start to blur as the wind and course shift from straight-line reaching. Time owing numbers after 225nm (minutes): Name Time Owing imsyc_Andren_2010 64 imsyc_close_haul 72 imsyc_FlyingDog 11 imsyc_Innsbruck 0 imsyc_JoNi Storm 25 imsyc_Lightning 26 imsyc_Love 17 imsyc_LoveBoat 11 imsyc_Normandy_I 135 imsyc_NumberOne 10 imsyc_Optimist_82 14 imsyc_Proud Mary 17 imsyc_Skuldelev_4 70 imsyc_SnAILBOAT 23 imsyc_Sunny_go 4 imsyc_SY Marlin 16 imsyc_Uprising 1 imsyc_Windigo 138 Use these values along your forecast line to find out approximately where you stand in the fleet on corrected time. Don't give up! Anyone can win
Posted by Incognito Posts 183 Registered at 2008-12-06 13:43:52	2010-02-17 15:12:37 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	76T, For the non-sailors here, you should explain in simple language what time owing means and how to interpret it, with a few examples. Regards, Francois
Posted by 76Trombones Posts 362 Registered at 2009-08-03 18:04:56	2010-02-17 15:50:20 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	Very good point! Ummm in 40 words or less preferably: In handicapped racing, slow boats are owed time by faster boats, the amount depending on the difference in the yacht's rating. If Boat A owed B 30 seconds, she needs to cross 30 or more seconds ahead to win. Time allowances figured during a race are estimates, and also use "as the crow flies" DTG like SOL's usual ranking. To use the numbers above, find the "Time Owed" for your boat. To compare to the lead boat (Innsbruck, at the moment) project your own position out along the pink predictor the amount of the rating. To compare to another boat, use the difference in ratings: Proud Mary is owed 17 by Innsbruck, while FlyingDog is owed 11. FlyingDog owes Proud Mary 6 minutes. Much more on my blog, and even more at orc.org
Posted by 76Trombones Posts 362 Registered at 2009-08-03 18:04:56	2010-02-17 20:03:46 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	Time owing after 24h Name Time Owing imsyc_Andren_2010 79 imsyc_close_haul 115 imsyc_FlyingDog 19 imsyc_Innsbruck 0 imsyc_JoNi Storm 41 imsyc_Lightning 42 imsyc_Love 29 imsyc_LoveBoat 19 imsyc_Normandy_I 168 imsyc_NumberOne 18 imsyc_Optimist_82 24 imsyc_Proud Mary 29 imsyc_Skuldelev_4 99 imsyc_SnAILBOAT 69 imsyc_Sunny_go 7 imsyc_SY Marlin 28 imsyc_Uprising 0 imsyc_Windigo 159
Posted by ADO-Open Country Posts 6 Registered at 2009-12-06 23:32:40	2010-02-18 03:04:07 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	76T- Have you ever used "Sail Wave" results program?? I thk this could make processing the results relativly easy even for 700+ entries etc Ref: www.sailwave.com --- Last Edited by ADO-Open Country at 2010-02-18 03:05:06 --- WairuaExpress!
Posted by 76Trombones Posts 362 Registered at 2009-08-03 18:04:56	2010-02-18 14:40:32 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	Thanks OC - I've been taking a look at different options. If people like the idea of this kind of race more than once a year we'll definitely work something out My on-the-fly estimates were underestimating time owed a bit, though the top 50 was "correct". Time owing after 41h (minutes): Name Time Owing imsyc_Andren_2010 197 imsyc_close_haul 704 imsyc_FlyingDog 87 imsyc_Innsbruck 4 imsyc_JoNi Storm 185 imsyc_Lightning 182 imsyc_Love 132 imsyc_LoveBoat 87 imsyc_Normandy_I 419 imsyc_NumberOne 85 imsyc_Optimist_82 109 imsyc_Proud Mary 133 imsyc_Skuldelev_4 373 imsyc_SnAILBOAT 1093 imsyc_Sunny_go 31 imsyc_SY Marlin 130 imsyc_Uprising 0 imsyc_Windigo 269
Posted by K3 (Bernd) Posts 130 Registered at 2008-08-25 12:34:07	2010-02-18 17:25:30 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	thanks 76T, that handicap moved me (Normandy) 7h from #400 to #82 )
Posted by 76Trombones Posts 362 Registered at 2009-08-03 18:04:56	2010-02-18 23:20:23 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	Name Time Owing imsyc_Andren_2010 230 imsyc_close_haul 929 imsyc_FlyingDog 119 imsyc_Innsbruck 7 imsyc_JoNi Storm 246 imsyc_Lightning 241 imsyc_Love 177 imsyc_LoveBoat 119 imsyc_Normandy_I 488 imsyc_NumberOne 116 imsyc_Optimist_82 148 imsyc_Proud Mary 179 imsyc_Skuldelev_4 470 imsyc_SnAILBOAT 1571 imsyc_Sunny_go 43 imsyc_SY Marlin 175 imsyc_Uprising 0 imsyc_Windigo 285
Posted by 76Trombones Posts 362 Registered at 2009-08-03 18:04:56	2010-02-19 18:53:41 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	This morning's update is too big for the forum... First 2h of corrected time results as of 13:00 posted on blog: http://76trombones.wordpress.com/2010/02/19/day-3-update/
Posted by 76Trombones Posts 362 Registered at 2009-08-03 18:04:56	2010-02-20 15:35:49 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
	Top 600 boats as of 15:00 Saturday posted to blog.

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