SOL takes a pretty big hit vs irl on nearshore winds, so it's all probably a bit moot.

Looking forward to seeing you guys out on the water!

Two options based mostly on the Oceanis 390 (I had several to choose from - this one is a very close match on handicap to Jubilant's .925 IRC)

The curves under 20 kts should be the same... guesswork above: option A is with Spin while B is sailing more conservatively under main and jib only.

Input welcome!

--- Last Edited by 76Trombones at 2013-04-23 23:09:59 ---

Active Pass is correct - it's named after a survey vessel, though the pass is both "active" in the amount of marine traffic (the main ferry service to the Vancouver Island goes through, and the E/W directions meet halfway... tourist favourite) and "active" due to the tide.

The lighthouse is on Georgina Point while Lighthouse Point is actually the municipal district - confusing no?

Active Pass is one of the only navigable routes, so it's a pretty important "access" point...

Tarco and Jaap have put some great work into pinning down a polar for the new MOD70 class trimarans, which looks set to take over as "fastest SOL boat" (comfortably!).

The first major races for 2012 are the 4 legs of the "Route des Princes" Starting in Valencia and ending in Morlaix via Lisbon, Dublin and Plymouth. These are fast boats so those are all pretty short legs - do we want to have a go in SOL?

June is always a busy month, but if we have room, they'd all be great races (or pick one or two?). Maybe RC can check the window - anyone want to volunteer to write up the series in SOL race proposal format?

I'll commit to following up with the MOD70 team to have a polar ready.

Looks good Tarco - I think we probably have enough data for a good guess. I can help bring it all together, or would you like to do the honours?

They'll be racing the "Route des Princes" in June as 4 shorter legs around Europe. We might not be able to fit all legs in (though it would make a nice series). RC probably has an idea of what's on deck for June, but it's always a busy month. Even if we don't do them in SOL we can "race" the new polar as a final check.

The *big* race will be the Transat in November? I hope they all make it to the start.

SOL mostly uses "real-time" winds and forecasts based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) models. There have been a few questions in chat about how reliable the forecast is, and if it's reasonable to make long term strategy decisions based on the predicted winds.

There are a few ways to look at this, and "weather forecasters" in general get a bad rap because the average person is most interested in what will happen on *their* commute home or for the bbq on the weekend than the actual weather systems. The forecaster is usually the guy who gets a minute and a half on the morning talk/news show.

We had some unusual weather for the balloon race, and had to switch gears about halfway through. The image below is a composite of the May 11, 1200utc forecast taken from SOL's Wx for the week prior, starting at the top.



It's pretty obvious that the weather predicted on the 4th is quite different from what we ended up with, but certainly the last 4 days are very close. What happened? Is the 7 day forecast wildly inaccurate?

Leading up to this sequence there were three lows in the N Atlantic - one well N, one SW of the finish and a more powerful one following. Each major system is well defined, but how they merge can get messy. In the earliest forecast, the SE low moved onshore - allowing the following one to quickly move NE.

By Friday, you see evidence of a dramatic slowing, but the prediction is still for a merge to the NE. This is where a bunch of us started to worry - if the earlier pattern held, we'd have a fast and safe approach to the finish, but it was looking like we'd have to loop in from the SE. The SE approach was very risky, as any shift back would leave boats stranded. I posted an analysis Friday evening in which the speeds in the NOAA model were called into question. The UK Met model showed the low lingering S of Ireland, and indeed this is what ended up happening.

By Sat, it was obvious that we were in a new pattern - remembering that it was always one of the options... The critical system was pulled down, giving us the Southerly winds eventually needed to finish.



--- Last Edited by 76Trombones at 2013-04-13 00:05:10 ---

Thank you for checking in.

You can see that it's slowed down... I've just barely restarted, and ballooning has turned out not to be very good for that, as Aaron's brain would have been going a mile a minute this race. I've been mentally compiling a list of the things he would have found interesting / explored / solved / shared, but my strength was always the supply side of the process. We made a good team, as he had a gift for getting things *done*. Sigh... Potential.

That doesn't rhyme.

Sorry.

76

On a tuesday in April we rose.
Where we'll end up nobody knows.
For doldrums or thyphoons
our fine SOL balloons
go only where the wind blows.

--- Last Edited by 76Trombones at 2013-04-08 13:03:03 ---

Good thing the balloon has a cannon. 19:00 and fingers crossed for good Wx?

If we have room in the calendar it's probably a good idea to leave the race open until friday night (or sat even).

Close at midnight for an easy countdown.

Whatever you think best RC - it's a bit of a slow start, so not critical I don't think.