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Board » General Discussion » Proposal for Performance Handicapping

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Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


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2012-02-29 04:46:18 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
The race info is in my spreadsheet. I'll separate out the info and post separately.
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NZL_Scotsman


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2012-02-29 05:34:31 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
Here is a list of races from 2011 to today. It includes the race number, title, start time, number of entrants and number of finishers.
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A2


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2009-10-26 00:39:42
2012-02-29 10:41:02 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
Thanks for this smaller list that I can use as a table of contents for the period covered.
None so blind
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NZL_Scotsman


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2012-03-05 07:48:15 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
The attached spreadsheet is a complete list of our races up to 1 March 2012. I'm ignoring the timed races, and a few others where the data is suspect. There are 283 races where I'm happy with the data. I've now analysed all of these and have the results as a ratio of the winning time.
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NZL_Scotsman


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2012-03-05 07:54:05 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I've selected a few SOLers and analysed their results over the whole 283 period. I chose the top 10 of their first 15 races as the starting rating. If the next race is better than this starting rating, then it is increased by 10% of the difference. This has been done for each race. So you can see the races where your performance has been better than your rating.

Most of this process is automated, but there are a few manual stages that are time consuming. I'll need to investigate ways to automate these.

I'd appreciate ideas for what we'd like to see with this. For example, if we'd like to use 20% for long or popular races and 5% for short races.

We'll also need to see how we can host this, whether here or on a companion site.
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NZL_Scotsman


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2012-03-05 07:55:29 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
By the way, I know there are a few errors, for example the races are in numerical order not date order. This will be relatively easy to sort out.
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2012-03-05 09:48:44 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
azur top SOLer with 241 race finishes, legend
Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


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2012-03-05 10:09:08 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I've only included improvements in rating. We could also include decreases depending they fall within a certain range, for example within 10%. This would allow some decrease in rating but not due to cruising or starting late.
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2012-03-07 07:34:58 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
Another thought after looking at the starting rating. I've used the top 10 results in the first 15 races. This results in a high rating for some sailors. Indeed, some are 1 as they won 10 races in this period. This might be too high, especially if we do not include a decrease in future rating. Maybe we should only drop 1 or 2 races in this initial period.
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2012-03-12 03:01:22 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I've updated the previous file to include all SOL members. I've only included the summary output as the full file size is now over 60mb.

I've also tried to work out a reasonable performance rating which is easier to understand than the handicap style rating. The formula PR=10/(1.01 - hcp rating) seems to work quite well. This is show on the attached page.

Remaining potential issues to resolve if we are happy with the way this is going:

1) Starting rating based on first 15 completed races with 5 drops. Should this be more/less races or more/less drops?
2) Improvement of 10% of the race result where better than existing rating. No decrease for any result lower than existing rating. Should this adjustment be more/less per race; vary for race type; vary for number/who racing against; include lower than existing (ie rating drops)?

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