Facebook

Login

Support Sailonline

If you haven't already - join the SAILONLINE YACHT CLUB!

Please also consider making a donation - all amounts are greatly appreciated!

Board » General Discussion » Proposal for Performance Handicapping

Page: Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 Next

Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


Users avatar

Posts
251
Registered at
2008-10-04 07:59:40
2012-02-21 11:06:04 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I've had a go at developing 76t's handicap / performance system. The attached spreadsheet has several worksheets.

This is only based on 8 races held this year so far, and the top 150 in each race. This would need populating with more races, but hopefully this gives a good idea of what I've been playing around with.

The performance / handicap rating is initially established through 5 races (in this case 441, 443, 282, 437, 442). A better developed system would take your first 10 ten races (or whatever number we decide on) as the starting handicap. I just did it this way to have something to get going with. So some boats have average of 5 results, others have less.

The per race rating is based on the ratio your result (finish time) is slower than the winner. i.e. the winner has rating 1. 1 is the best you can achieve. Winston has this as he won all the races in the initial rating. Once the initial rating has been established, future races can have a handicap result ranking and a boat performance rating.

Look at sheet 438 (scroll to the top if it opens lower down). Column A is the race result ranking (line honours). L is the race result as a ratio of the winner. O is the handicap based on the average of the initial races. The performance is determined by comparing your race rating to your handicap. A higher number is better.

P is the adjustment based on your race performance. If you beat your handicap, then it is increased - see column Q (I've just chosen 10% of the difference for this example). Your handicap does not decrease for a bad performance. This avoids DNF or cruising affecting the long term handicap.

Finally, the handicap results can be determined, which is shown on column T.

I'll keep playing with this, but have a look and let me know what you think. If we are keen on this system, then we'll need a hand with some of the programming aspects.


--- Last Edited by NZL Scotsman at 2012-02-21 11:10:36 ---
Attachments
Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


Users avatar

Posts
251
Registered at
2008-10-04 07:59:40
2012-02-25 11:09:31 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I've been doing more analysis of the race results from last year. So far I've analysed the first 20 races out of about 90. The aim of this is to establish the baseline handicaps for going forward. I thought I'd share some thoughts as I've been doing this.

1) How many races should make up the baseline? I'm assuming 10 at the moment. From last years results, if a boat did more than 10 races then I've averaged the top 10 results.

2) For boats that are new or don't race as much, should the handicap be provisional until a certain number of races are complete, for example 15 or 20?

3) Should we ignore results below a certain time, for example outside 25% of the winning time?

4) Should certain races be considered more important, for example ocean races?

Any comments welcome.
Posted by
A2


Users avatar

Posts
347
Registered at
2009-10-26 00:39:42
2012-02-25 13:50:36 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
First let me state that I have no experience with handicapping systems and the like but in principle I support its aims.

As for weighting the results I think the number of boats (that actually race) and the composite strength of the participants in the field should be factored in.
None so blind
Posted by
76Trombones


Users avatar

Posts
362
Registered at
2009-08-03 18:04:56
2012-02-25 14:48:21 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I think A2 has the right idea when it comes to weighting races and adjusting vs boats sailing.

I've played a bit with a couple variations of what I posted earlier, but have recently been thinking about (but not seriously trying to work out the details of) the following:

ELO - style system where for each race your time-on-handicap is compared to that of every other boat racing and an adjustment made based on relative performance.

Only boats that improve their rating get taken into account. In order to rate faster you have to beat a boat that has also rated faster...

I'm not quite sure of the implications of the second rule. Maybe performances near-handicap could be included? We need a way to exclude cruisers, unlucky sli etc or else the handicaps become a dis-incentive to race more frequently.
Posted by
Tazumaki


Users avatar

Posts
46
Registered at
2009-08-10 15:21:39
2012-02-25 17:37:51 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
Regarding unlucky SLI's, missed Wx's on TWA or whatever may completly ruin a race. I had a couple of thoughts how to handle that for a Handicap.
But i didn't get any idea how to judge a wrong but continously and ambitious sailed Strategy from a SLI, an oversleped Wx, a lost connection or even cruising mode.

Leaving bad races out might lead to frustrated Beginners with one luckily achived good Position unable to get down to more suitable ranking while it simultaniously leads to suitable Handicaps for skilled but lazy Navigators.

Counting all races will have similar more or less unwanted Sideeffects.

And at least there will be two Groups of People; one that is willing to see how they are doing against very skilled Sailors with high-power Computers and very expensive Software in one specific Race and another Group willing to get the lowest possible Handicap in order to look like beeing skilled. ;-)

So i got to the conclusion that there is no right or wrong Formular and no Formular better than others. I would suggest to compute both and let Folks decide which they will use for themselves.
Posted by
76Trombones


Users avatar

Posts
362
Registered at
2009-08-03 18:04:56
2012-02-25 18:18:18 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
Most of the systems I've considered have relatively slow response rates. A boat that "got lucky" would have to do it 10 or more times in a row to bias their stat too much. At that point I'd start to argue that getting lucky is one of their skills/strategies :-D

There will be variations due to different approaches. Boats that "swing for the fences" mix big wins with big losses, even if they aren't cruising. What I'm proposing would handicap their potential, rather than the average. Boats that always do about the same are more likely to handicap out near the middle of the fleet more often.

In both cases, the SPH tells you quite a bit about how you did vs yourself for each race. The comparison vs the fleet is interesting too, but I see improving your own stat to be the primary goal, rather than winning on handicap. For a top 20 boat to win on handicap would require a stunning race (it's been done).

A top-half result on handicap lets you know that you sailed a good race. A race that changes your handicap lets you know that you sailed a great one - from a personal best pov.
Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


Users avatar

Posts
251
Registered at
2008-10-04 07:59:40
2012-02-25 21:45:06 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I did think of weighting the performance handicap rating based on number of sailors. However, this is a bit tricky as we need to consider:
a) number of starters
b) number of finishers (this depends on the cut off, typically about 50% actually have a finish time)
c) does it make a difference if the top ranked players turn up?
Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


Users avatar

Posts
251
Registered at
2008-10-04 07:59:40
2012-02-25 22:00:59 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
To explain a bit more how the rating might change based on results: I mentioned 10% before. This would mean that the rating would increase 10% of the race result.

For example, say your rating is 0.9. This would mean that you typically finish about position 100. Say you have a blinder and win the next race on line. The race result would be 1.0 so the difference is 0.1. 10% of that is 0.01. So the new rating becomes 0.91.

You would need to win 8 races to get up to 0.95 and 23 races to get to 0.99.

Based on the first 20 races last year, our top ranked player winston has a rating of 0.999. Karmafish (#10 in rankings) has 0.989. The wonderful rainbowchaser has 0.970.

We may decide to vary the 10% rating improvement factor based on type or race or number of sailors. Just using this as a starting point for discussion.
Posted by
A2


Users avatar

Posts
347
Registered at
2009-10-26 00:39:42
2012-02-26 19:59:16 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
If I understand it the performance aspect of the raw data is based on a time comparison expressed as a percentage.

76T & Scotsman certainly are more qualified to deliver a final product that suits this venue, all things considered.

I do have experience with another approach to the dataset that I would like to develop in parallel to see if it merits further consideration.

Namely converting the elapsed times into an Indexed rating. The slowest finishing time in the sample would be given a value of zero, the winning time a one and those in between a corresponding proportional value.

This then indexes the margin of victory as a basis of comparison rather than the overall elapsed time.

Perhaps it will yield the same results but I think that it would be a good way to evaluate races of varying lengths.

Comments welcome.
None so blind
Posted by
76Trombones


Users avatar

Posts
362
Registered at
2009-08-03 18:04:56
2012-02-26 21:03:53 - Re: Proposal for Performance Handicapping
I've been trying to do that, but picking a lower point gets tricky quickly. Different races have different numbers of boats, different strengths of boat, and different "difficulty" of course.

I'm messing about with the "use everybody that sailed at or above handicap" to try to define the fleet used for calculations.

Page: Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 Next

Please login to post a reply.

Races

Next Race: 00d 00h 00m

Current Races:

Regata dell’Accademia Navale 2025

Welcome to Sailonline’s first partnership with the City of Livorno, in cooperation with the local yacht clubs and the Italian Navy, to offer you the online opportunity to race the Regata dell’Accademia Navale. 630nm in length, starting and finishing in Livorno, the race takes you the length and breadth of the Tyrrhenian Sea via Porto Cervo and Capri. Online, you will be sailing a Class 40, which should keep you well in with the top of the real-life fleet which we will be tracking on screen!
Race #1902
INFO by brainaid.de
Class 40 PARTICULARS
WX Updates:
0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking: SYC
Race starts: Apr 27th 09:00 Registration Open!

▶ Flash
GO TO RACE

Gulf of St Lawrence 2025


The Gulf of St. Lawrence, with one of the largest and deepest estuaries in the world, will be the site of a completely new race in SOL. Our Melges 40 will take us 950 nm from Bathurst in Baie des Chaleurs around the islands of Anticosti, Pelee and Prince Edward admiring beautiful landscapes along the way. Fair winds.
Race #1910
INFO from brainaid.de
Melges 40 PARTICULARS
WX Updates:
0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking:
ARQ2 - ARCH - SUPSOL – SYC
Race starts: Apr 21st 17:00 Registration Open!
▶ Flash
GO TO RACE

Transat à Deux 2025

Above you see a single-handed sailor semi-foiling his Beneteau Figaro III to the horizon. It is in fact Ireland’s Sailor of the Year and the overall winner of last year’s Solitaire du Figaro, Tom Dolan. Somehow, we got our hands on a polar for the Class, and rather than trying to surreptitiously track Tom and his mates in the 2025 edition of the Solitaire, sailing rather-short, single-handed legs across the Celtic Sea and Biscay, we thought we’d see how our virtual craft would fare on the Class’s double-handed 3900nm Trans-Atlantic, from somewhere in Brittanny to somewhere in the Caribbean via somewhere in the Canaries. Allez, mes braves!
Race #1901
INFOby brainaid.de
Figaro III foil PARTICULARS
WX Updates:
0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking: SYC
Race starts: Apr 20th 11:00 Registration Open!
▶ Flash
GO TO RACE

Bahamas and Back TIMED Race 2025

Welcome to sunny South Florida for this race that has us crossing the Gulf Stream twice. We depart from Palm Beach for a short run over to Freeport, Bahamas then it’s on to Miami before heading to the finish line back in Palm Beach. This is a TIMED race, so you may RE-REGISTER HERE to try again, after finishing a run. You will have 13 days and 11 hours to test your skill and decision making after the race opens.
Race #1911
INFO by brainaid.de
Santa Cruz 70 PARTICULARS
WX Updates:
0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking:
TRQ2 - TRCH - SUPSOL - SYC
RACE CLOSE: Saturday,
26 April at 23:00 UTC
Race starts: Apr 13th 12:00 Registration Open!
▶ Flash
GO TO RACE

Sinbad by Balloon 2025 - Toamasina to Baia de l'Oiseau


You may recall that when last we visited Madagascar in the company of Sinbad, the Sultan commanded our intrepid inspirator to seek out fabled islands where in Summer the sun barely set. We did and we returned but the Sultan wasn’t happy with Sinbad’s report, so here we go again, now by SOL Balloon instead of sailing vessel. Expect to be in the air for at least 2100nm and depending on how the wind brings us, anything between two weeks and two months before we shall descend at the Sultan’s given coordinates!
Race #1884
INFOby brainaid.de
SOL Balloon PARTICULARS
WX Updates:
0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking: SYC - SBB
Race starts: Apr 09th 11:00 Registration Closed
▶ Flash
GO TO RACE

Valparaiso to San Francisco 2025

Get ready for an exhilarating new challenge as we set sail on the fourth leg of the 2025 Ocean Championship Series! Following in the 19th century footsteps of Isabel Allende's heroine, Eliza Sommers, 'Daughter of Fortune', this all-new route takes us across the vast eastern Pacific, from Valparaíso, Chile, to San Francisco, California - a 3500nm journey of endurance, strategy, and pure sailing adrenaline. This leg will be raced aboard the powerful Rapido 60, pushing sailors to their limits as they navigate the open ocean. Do you have what it takes to conquer the Pacific? Join us and put your skills to the ultimate test!
PRIZE: SMPF
Race #1900
INFO by brainaid.de
Rapido 60 PARTICULARS
WX Updates:
0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking: OCQ2 - OCCH - SUPSOL - SYC
Race starts: Apr 07th 11:00 Registration Closed
▶ Flash
GO TO RACE

Go to race archive

SYC Ranking

  1. Sailonline Yacht Club Member WRmirekd
  2. Sailonline Yacht Club Member Patrick70119
  3. Sailonline Yacht Club Member CriticalHippo
  4. Sailonline Yacht Club Member KaSToR
  5. Sailonline Yacht Club Member FreyjaUSA
  6. Sailonline Yacht Club Member vida
  7. Sailonline Yacht Club Member rafa
  8. Sailonline Yacht Club Member Kipper1258
  9. Sailonline Yacht Club Member bonknhoot
  10. Sailonline Yacht Club Member rumskib

View full list

Series

Mobile Client

SYC members have the benefit of access to our mobile/lightweight web client!

The mobile client