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Board » Flag Officers » Races » Handicapping the IMSYC 2010

Posted by
76Trombones


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2009-08-03 18:04:56
2010-02-17 15:04:46 - Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
Post annotated by Incognito :
This thread was moved from the category General Discussion.
A bit of a side project for this year's race... ORC-style handicapping of the official standings:

Background info and more detail on http://76trombones.wordpress.com

Interesting race so far - It's fun to see the fleet open up depthwise in the first few hours instead of the single-wavefront look that we normally get. Cool also to see how quickly you can identify the different fleets as gaps open up. These differences will start to blur as the wind and course shift from straight-line reaching.

Time owing numbers after 225nm (minutes):
Name Time Owing
imsyc_Andren_2010 64
imsyc_close_haul 72
imsyc_FlyingDog 11
imsyc_Innsbruck 0
imsyc_JoNi Storm 25
imsyc_Lightning 26
imsyc_Love 17
imsyc_LoveBoat 11
imsyc_Normandy_I 135
imsyc_NumberOne 10
imsyc_Optimist_82 14
imsyc_Proud Mary 17
imsyc_Skuldelev_4 70
imsyc_SnAILBOAT 23
imsyc_Sunny_go 4
imsyc_SY Marlin 16
imsyc_Uprising 1
imsyc_Windigo 138

Use these values along your forecast line to find out approximately where you stand in the fleet on corrected time.

Don't give up! Anyone can win :-)
Posted by
Incognito


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2008-12-06 13:43:52
2010-02-17 15:12:37 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
76T,

For the non-sailors here, you should explain in simple language what time owing means and how to interpret it, with a few examples.

Regards,

Francois
Posted by
76Trombones


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2010-02-17 15:50:20 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
Very good point! Ummm in 40 words or less preferably:

In handicapped racing, slow boats are owed time by faster boats, the amount depending on the difference in the yacht's rating.

If Boat A owed B 30 seconds, she needs to cross 30 or more seconds ahead to win.

Time allowances figured during a race are estimates, and also use "as the crow flies" DTG like SOL's usual ranking.

To use the numbers above, find the "Time Owed" for your boat. To compare to the lead boat (Innsbruck, at the moment) project your own position out along the pink predictor the amount of the rating.

To compare to another boat, use the difference in ratings: Proud Mary is owed 17 by Innsbruck, while FlyingDog is owed 11. FlyingDog owes Proud Mary 6 minutes.

Much more on my blog, and even more at orc.org
Posted by
76Trombones


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2010-02-17 20:03:46 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
Time owing after 24h

Name Time Owing
imsyc_Andren_2010 79
imsyc_close_haul 115
imsyc_FlyingDog 19
imsyc_Innsbruck 0
imsyc_JoNi Storm 41
imsyc_Lightning 42
imsyc_Love 29
imsyc_LoveBoat 19
imsyc_Normandy_I 168
imsyc_NumberOne 18
imsyc_Optimist_82 24
imsyc_Proud Mary 29
imsyc_Skuldelev_4 99
imsyc_SnAILBOAT 69
imsyc_Sunny_go 7
imsyc_SY Marlin 28
imsyc_Uprising 0
imsyc_Windigo 159
Posted by
ADO-Open Country


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2009-12-06 23:32:40
2010-02-18 03:04:07 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
76T- Have you ever used "Sail Wave" results program?? I thk this could make processing the results relativly easy even for 700+ entries etc
Ref: www.sailwave.com


--- Last Edited by ADO-Open Country at 2010-02-18 03:05:06 ---
WairuaExpress!
Posted by
76Trombones


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2010-02-18 14:40:32 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
Thanks OC - I've been taking a look at different options. If people like the idea of this kind of race more than once a year we'll definitely work something out :-)

My on-the-fly estimates were underestimating time owed a bit, though the top 50 was "correct".

Time owing after 41h (minutes):

Name Time Owing
imsyc_Andren_2010 197
imsyc_close_haul 704
imsyc_FlyingDog 87
imsyc_Innsbruck 4
imsyc_JoNi Storm 185
imsyc_Lightning 182
imsyc_Love 132
imsyc_LoveBoat 87
imsyc_Normandy_I 419
imsyc_NumberOne 85
imsyc_Optimist_82 109
imsyc_Proud Mary 133
imsyc_Skuldelev_4 373
imsyc_SnAILBOAT 1093
imsyc_Sunny_go 31
imsyc_SY Marlin 130
imsyc_Uprising 0
imsyc_Windigo 269
Posted by
K3 (Bernd)


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2008-08-25 12:34:07
2010-02-18 17:25:30 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
thanks 76T, that handicap moved me (Normandy) 7h from #400 to #82 :))
Posted by
76Trombones


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2009-08-03 18:04:56
2010-02-18 23:20:23 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
Name Time Owing
imsyc_Andren_2010 230
imsyc_close_haul 929
imsyc_FlyingDog 119
imsyc_Innsbruck 7
imsyc_JoNi Storm 246
imsyc_Lightning 241
imsyc_Love 177
imsyc_LoveBoat 119
imsyc_Normandy_I 488
imsyc_NumberOne 116
imsyc_Optimist_82 148
imsyc_Proud Mary 179
imsyc_Skuldelev_4 470
imsyc_SnAILBOAT 1571
imsyc_Sunny_go 43
imsyc_SY Marlin 175
imsyc_Uprising 0
imsyc_Windigo 285
Posted by
76Trombones


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2010-02-19 18:53:41 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
This morning's update is too big for the forum... First 2h of corrected time results as of 13:00 posted on blog:

http://76trombones.wordpress.com/2010/02/19/day-3-update/
Posted by
76Trombones


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2010-02-20 15:35:49 - Re: Handicapping the IMSYC 2010
Top 600 boats as of 15:00 Saturday posted to blog.

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