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Board » Flag Officers » Races » SWR Leg 6

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NZL_Scotsman


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2012-04-30 10:32:32 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 6: Well, 6 and a half but who is counting?

The leaders of the fleet are about to cross the doldrums. They are pretty weak at the moment, and only appear here as a patch of light blue amongst the green. At the moment, the forecast suggests that the wind may drop to 7 kts or so, which means that the boat speed does not drop all that much.

It does mean that many boats will head more north than the rhumbline, which is now NW. This is to maintain boat speed through the lighter pressure and to escape potentially unstable winds. Once into the steadier trades of the northern hemisphere we will bear away towards Miami.

The doldrums are a zone of light winds in most oceans, more correctly named the intertropical convergence zone, or ITCZ for short. The zone moves north and south in a seasonal cycle. The doldrums exist because of a global atmostpheric pressure cycle, where the air rises near the equator and sinks in the cold poles. This cycle drives much of the winds on the planet. The trades are due to the coriolis effect, where the rotation of the earth under the atmosphere results in the wind direction of the trades.

The ITCZ is an area of great importance to ocean sailors. The myth that the water goes down the plughole in a different direction in my new country compared to my old one should not be.
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2012-04-30 10:39:46 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 7 and a bit.

The northern most boats have now cleared the doldrums. They can now bear away at good speed towards the next mark.

Quite a number of boats gybed to stay closer to the rhumbline. They have still to clear the doldrums and will be hoping for a good crossing. The real boats have also stayed closer to land, but they have more to think about than the virtual world, as currents play a big part in routing here.

The trades will provide us with fast reaching sailing for a week as we charge towards the USA. This does not provide dramatic weather changes that occurs elsewhere, so the overtaking opportunities are more difficult. However, over a week even small speed differences add up. At least we do not need to worry about our sails being damaged.

So who is ahead, the rhumbline boats or the northern pack? Time will tell but my money is on the northerners.
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2012-05-02 01:20:13 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 8. The boats that are probably in the lead are into the trades. These steady easterly winds will power the boats up and send them towards Miami. This pack are rapidly overtaking the rhumbline boats on DTF and therefore the leaderboard.

There is now over 500nm separation between those who continued on starboard and those that gybed SW. It is looking increasingly likely that the northern boats have taken the better option. They crossed the doldrums when they were weak and did not slow down much. In contrast, those in the south still face lighter winds for at least another day.

As the trades are very steady, there are few options to overtake. Very small course changes are all that is required to maintain high speed in the best direction. We will probably have to wait until near the next mark in about 6 days time before the battle for the win will be decided.

In the meantime, it is follow the leader. If you are further back, then unfortuately you will be watching the leader extend his lead and disappear over the horizon.
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2012-05-02 01:35:31 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 9: I thought a comparison between the current race leader and a former race leader would be useful. The DTF calculation add miles to the northern boats as it assumes more miles are required to reach the finish. This can confuse the race situation.

We can see from this plot that the leader nacrr has about 1730nm to the next mark. This is over 350nm less than the leading boats in the south. It is unlikely that the southern boats can overhaul such a difference.
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2012-05-03 09:38:51 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 10: Most of the leading pack have gybed towards the Caribbean and the West Indies. We can see Martinique on the left of the attached plot.

So why gybe, and why gybe now? As we sail north of the tropics, the trades become unstable. If we continue sailing higher than the direct course to the next mark, then we risk sailing into lighter winds and adverse sailing angles, which would be slower.

Why not gybe earlier? One guide is that the wind direction has been north of 100 degrees most of the time, which has allowed us to sail between 285 and 310. Now the wind has veered to more than 100, so we can only sail 315 unless we sacrifice speed. So the angle of the wind suits gybing now.

The wind strength will also be affected more as we sail north. There is lighter wind to the NE and also to the W. Therefore, there is a channel of stronger wind in the middle. We need to get west to keep in this wind.

All this may sound complicated, but such calculations are helped by the use of a router. Or by eye, judgment and SOTP. Either way, most of us have gybed for the first time in many days and woken up the off shift. Move those sails lads.
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2012-05-04 21:43:18 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 11: The weather situation is becoming more complex as we leave the trades. On the attached plot we see a large high pressure to our NE which is affecting the winds in the area we want to sail. There is also a ridge of lighter winds ahead of the fleet.

These zones result in many options for how to sail to the next mark. The choices between pressure, wind direction and preferred course become more difficult. With that, overtaking opportunities open up. This can be particularly difficult after a relatively relaxing time through the trades. Complacency is dangerous.

We can see the leading bunch packed into a zone of stronger winds (they are still spread out over a few 100nm, so not exactly a close bunch). We are all making our way downwind towards the finish. What will the wx do? Where is the best route? Being ahead is certainly an advantage here. The leaders will gain.
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2012-05-09 07:57:56 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 12: The fleet was passing to the east of the West Indies. There was a high to the NE with lighter winds. Difficult choices lie ahead for the navigators of these intrepid ocean explorers for much of the remainder of the race.

The attached plots give an example of how three slightly different strategies and timing of gybes can make a difference. In the past few days, I have been very level with Tempest, and lost ground to Rhino. Rhino had picked out better pressure and angles and gradually made some miles. These totalled maybe 5 or 6 nms over week. Very slight differences each day, but they add up.

However, in the last day or so, I have made quite big gains by choosing better times for my gybes. The "rhino" plot has a longer timeframe from hmm's excellent site (http://sol.hmm.iki.fi/sollog/races/). The other is the last day from SOL.

The last 2 gybes are where the biggest gains were. You can see I have sailed a better angle. The gybes were timed to make best use of a shifting breeze. Being on the better board resulted in over 10nm gained on rhino and over 20nm gained on Tempest in only 12 hours.

Overall the fleet has been gybing more to the west towards the islands to try and stay in good pressure. The days ahead look challening.
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2012-05-09 08:06:37 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 14: The wanderings of a high pressure to the NE of the fleet continues to torment the navigators. The race leaders have escaped the lightest winds for now and are able to head NW towards the mark.

The chasers are losing ground. They are either in the lightest winds and trying to maintain progress, or sailing into lighter pressure.

In an attempt to find good pressure I've gybed to the SW. So I'm sailing away from the mark. This is risky at the best of times, but particularly at this moment due to the movement of the high. If it drifts my way, it could open up another area for good progress and block mine. Most are heading more directly towards the mark and will make small course changes to try and keep going as best they can.

So why go SW? I have some islands in the way, which are an important barrier to consider. Which side to go? Which channels to aim for? How to make sure I don't hit anything? My weather and routing models have suggested going this way for some time.

I hedged my bets somewhat, by more gradually moving W rather than a more agressive approach earlier. We can see boats behing taking this course now, as it becomes clearer that this might be a good option.

I may have thrown away a nice top 30 position, but this way has the potential to overtake a few and make the top 20 or better.

--- Last Edited by NZL Scotsman at 2012-05-09 08:07:08 ---
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2012-05-09 08:13:09 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Day 15: The leaders are close to Miami and can begin to relax. Not too many challenges on the last few miles. Superb sailing by Nacrr means he takes out the win by a big margin.

My gamble to the SW has paid off, to some extent at least. Unusually, the boats that have faired the worst were in the middle. The boats furthest NE managed to find some decent pressure at times, and I've kept in good pressure with reasonable direction enough of the time to make up for the miles lost by my detour.

But those in the middle were mired in light winds for the longest. The 20kts plus boat speeds of last week were forgotten, and speeds above 5 kts were wildly celebrated, doubly so if they were in a good direction.

There are a few islands to avoid on the way, but the hardyards are nearly done.

Over 800 boats started the leg, and most have a long way still to sail. Nacrr will get the first shower, many will have to put up with a cold one or the water running out in a week or two's time.
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2012-05-09 08:21:29 - Re: SWR Leg 6
Leader board result:
1 nacrr
2 rumskib
3 AGage
4 Zembu
5 Amigo do Boteco1
6 ita10267
7 bigbull
8 76Trombones
9 Garagiste
10 Morgaine

Nacrr took 16 days 1 hour 39 minutes and 30 seconds for the 4800nm leg. He won the leg by over 90 minutes.

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