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Board » General Discussion » Weather updates

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Posted by
raven


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2008-03-10 12:36:50
2008-09-19 06:22:00 - Weather updates
Hi!

As of late, the weather updates seems to dictate the outcome of the race rather than individual sailing (although, of course, also important).

The perfect strategy might get ruined by the new weather or a real poor one boosted to a win.

I know this might resemble the real world where the weather is an unknown constant but the radical changes we're getting every 12 hours isn't very realistic :) and what about the poor sailors that normally sleep at 5.45 or 17.45 CET? They can basically be thrown of course by a new nasty weather while sleeping.

I'm not sure it's possible but I would vote for a weather system that perhaps is less like the real weather but easier to use in the game. Say each new weather forecast blends in with the old one and at shorter intervals than today. Then it would more gradually change and the weather for the closest hours would be more fixed.

Also, this would prevent sailors used to GRIBS from reading the weather updates before all other sailors as that data isn't necessarily what goes in the game.

Wouldn't that be nice?
Posted by
Eddie C. Dost


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2008-08-23 11:40:29
2008-09-19 06:46:29 - Re: Weather updates
One way to get a gradual change between weather updates would be to interpolate between the weather systems. Usually the weather data is available in 3h increments. In between there is interpolation over time anyway.

You get new weather at (shortly before) 0600 and 1800 UTC. 1200 UTC and 0000 UTC could also be used.

Now you could interpolate from 0600 UTC to 1200 UTC from the old weather to the new weather, this would make the change more gradual.

This would of course still be predeterminal by sailors smart enough. There is a way to go around this and make the game even more realistic:

Take the normal weather forecast as that what is shown in the client. Everybody may download this using UGrib or similar. But the wind you experience on board your ship is not what is in the forecast. For this you take weather from one of the slightly different forecasts run to produce trends in weather. There are 20 or more of these each day. Pick a different one at random and do not transfer this to the client, only the server knows which weather is active. Interpolate between old and new weather and it will be almost impossible to guess which exact trend forecast is active on the server.

I am willing to go into more details on this if SOL wants this. Please contact me by e-mail in this case.

Fair winds,
Eddie
_/)_/)_/)
The sea is lovely, dark, and deep, But I have promises to keep, And miles to sail before I sleep, And miles to sail before I sleep.
Posted by
SWE54


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2007-08-11 10:02:20
2008-09-19 06:52:49 - Re: Weather updates
I agree that the weather can bring surprices sometimes but on the other hand that's just what real weather does.
A more frequent update could smooth things out and make things more realistic but do not create any weather data. In real life you get a forecast and it is not always the real weather mathes and the new forecast will be different from the old, as seen so many times on TV..:)

Posted by
raven


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2008-03-10 12:36:50
2008-09-19 06:58:06 - Re: Weather updates
That might be true but we're not sailing in real weather. We're sailing on fixed weather for 12 hours and then on new fixed weather for 12 hours and it's when we move from one forecast to the next it's messed up.

Perfect solution would be to have forecasts generated every second (I know, unrealistic) then it would be like sailing in real weather...
Posted by
jakob


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2007-09-04 10:05:30
2008-09-19 10:06:31 - Re: Weather updates
Hi all,

First, let me express my pleasure over this discussion! Most of what you all say is correct.

Let me declare our intention: To make the racing conditions as realistic as possible. Having this said, the more tricky q is to define "realistic". We have not spent too much time into this issue but I realise that maybe we should. In this process we really appreciate your input.

The current system aims at using best possible forecatst. This is how it works today: Two times per day (maybe we could crank it up to 4?!) we get new forecasts in GRIB-format. The forecasts contain weather at certain time steps. Between these time steps the server interpolates in time to shuffle boats around in a continuously changing weather system. Thus, "now"- time is in practice always between to time steps.

When a new forecast arrive we keep the two time steps we are currently interpolating between but exchange all following time steps for the new ones. As a consequence we typically know exactly what the weather is going to be until the next forecast arrives.

Now, what should we do? What is the aim? Is it to keep sailing in the best possible forecasts (as today) or is it to manipulate the forecasts to be "fairly good" but less predictable (as IRL)?

I do not know? All ideas are welcome and the more specific suggestions we get the bigger the chance of implementation :-)

Regards
Jakob


...one of the guys behind the game...
Posted by
NZL_PaulR


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2008-07-22 12:21:30
2008-09-19 10:33:43 - Re: Weather updates
I favour the weather to be as realistic as possible, as this is excellent training for real life sailing.

The weather one experiences on the ocean is NEVER as forecast. It is similar, but earlier or late, more or less pressure and/or wind speed; and the angle changes constantly. Storms are stronger and calms last longer.

Further on an ocean race, you never spend 24/7 listening to the forecasts. You generally get forcasts at certain times of the day/night, sometimes often missing them or not bothering for a day or two, depending upon where in the world you are.

Weatherfax has made this simple; but it still happens at specific times and with significant time periods between forecasts.

The internet has vastly improved the ability to receive updated weather information but what would you do if that failed? You would fall back to shortwave forecasts with hand drawn sketches only.

So the challenge and rewards of SOL is the ability to practice tactics and being able to see what the fleet is doing as well. Analysis, guess work and finally luck all play a part.

Losing that challange with "ideal and stable" weather would I believe be the death knell to SOL.

As for times of forecasts, then having the same update at the same hour is also not really realistic. Perhaps one answer is to use the time schedules of forecasts available from local radio stations for say the average of the top 20% of the fleet. Then again, one normally only listens by preference to radio stations that broadcast from your own country (as you trust them) and in your own language as first choice.

Losing that real life weather guessing and never getting any lucky breaks would make SOL dead boring, IMHO.
If it breaks, it's not strong enough!
Posted by
jakob


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2007-09-04 10:05:30
2008-09-19 12:20:55 - Re: Weather updates
One more thing after discussion with Kalle: Although it is a bit unnatural to have perfect forecasts for 12h at the time we have to realize that some users do not watch SOL all day long. If we disturb the forecasts we make life harder for those users...
...one of the guys behind the game...
Posted by
raven


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Registered at
2008-03-10 12:36:50
2008-09-19 17:00:34 - Re: Weather updates
Most of these points and ideas are valid. I would still argue that if nothing else, keep one more of the 3-hour forecasts when updating. Ie, if the updates is at 17.45 save 15, 18 and 21 from before. As it is now you have around 15 minutes to prepare for the new change rather than 3 hours which would make a huge difference :)
Posted by
kalle


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2007-06-01 09:58:04
2008-09-19 17:08:29 - Re: Weather updates
I think increasing the inter-forecast interpolation to 3h is a cup of breakfast cereal for our algorithmic mastermind Jakob :)
Posted by
jakob


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2007-09-04 10:05:30
2008-09-19 17:43:01 - Re: Weather updates
Good point!
Also, I talked to Weathertech today about getting 4 forecasts per day. Would that be an improvement?
...one of the guys behind the game...

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